he big debate at the beginning of 2021 is whether the state of emergency, which allows spending on aid, will be extended or not. In any case, the budget for the coming year is in deficit, while aid to the population is essential to guarantee basic consumption.
Trade balance
In this case, GDP will benefit from the recovery of the Chinese economy, which is important for both Brazilian imports and exports.
Unemployment
Unemployment is expected to rise in 2021. The Professor explains that this is a situation that will likely recover slowly, meaning that even with possible GDP growth, unemployment will likely take denmark whatsapp data longer to fall. In addition, the pandemic has accelerated digital transformation in companies exponentially, which means that many professionals will need to be retrained to return to the job market.
" Reskilling is essential for employability. There is a new post-Covid world. Postmodernity was anticipated, there are many opportunities for those who train , but many people are not realizing this", highlights Securato.
Inflation
Just like in 2020, inflation will rise due to the exchange rate and the demand for aid. However, the Professor explains that this is not a structural problem since it comes from problems that tend to be resolved as the pandemic comes to an end. Due to inflation, there should also be a rise in interest rates , which last year reached the lowest levels in history.
Exchange
The exchange rate in 2021 should fluctuate around R$4.90. Everything will depend on the signals that the government sends to the market through its measures and also on the amount of dollars that enter and leave Brazil.
Risks
The Professor also listed some risks that could impact the Brazilian economy in 2021, always remembering that the end of the pandemic does not directly mean economic recovery. They are:
Political and governance risk;
Negative Brazilian image in the world regarding environmental issues.
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